| 1. Identificação | ||||
| Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Evento (Conference Proceedings) | |||
| Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Repositório | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.21.10 | |||
| Última Atualização | 2006:04.15.19.07.00 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Repositório de Metadados | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.21.10.52 | |||
| Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2018:06.05.03.43.02 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Chave de Citação | RuizSaulKaln:2006:PrAs | |||
| Título | A regional ensemble forecast system for Southeastern South America: preliminary assessment  | |||
| Formato | CD-ROM, On-line. | |||
| Ano | 2006 | |||
| Data de Acesso | 15 maio 2024 | |||
| Tipo Secundário | PRE CI | |||
| Número de Arquivos | 1 | |||
| Tamanho | 314 KiB | |||
| 2. Contextualização | ||||
| Autor | 1 Ruiz, Juan José 2 Saulo, A. Celeste 3 Kalnay, Eugenia | |||
| Afiliação | 1 Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y de la Atmósfera (CONICET/UBA) Intendente Guiraldes 2160 - Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II - 2do. piso (C1428EGA) Buenos Aires - Argentina (Ruiz 2 Saulo) 3 University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA 301.405.1000 (Kalnay) | |||
| Endereço de e-Mail do Autor | 1 jruiz@cima.fcen.uba.ar 2 saulo@cima.fcen.uba.ar 3 ekalnay@atmos.umd.edu | |||
| Editor | Vera, Carolina Nobre, Carlos | |||
| Endereço de e-Mail | jruiz@cima.fcen.uba.ar | |||
| Nome do Evento | International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 8 (ICSHMO). | |||
| Localização do Evento | Foz do Iguaçu | |||
| Data | 24-28 Apr. 2006 | |||
| Editora (Publisher) | American Meteorological Society (AMS) | |||
| Cidade da Editora | 45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA | |||
| Páginas | 1977-1984 | |||
| Título do Livro | Proceedings | |||
| Tipo Terciário | Oral | |||
| Organização | American Meteorological Society (AMS) | |||
| Histórico (UTC) | 2005-10-31 21:10:52 :: jruiz@cima.fcen.uba.ar -> administrator :: 2005-11-11 21:54:31 :: administrator -> adm_conf :: 2005-12-16 00:06:38 :: adm_conf -> jruiz@cima.fcen.uba.ar :: 2006-03-29 16:13:15 :: jruiz@cima.fcen.uba.ar -> administrator :: 2006-04-18 21:16:04 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2010-12-28 12:36:45 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2010-12-29 15:58:35 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2006 2010-12-29 16:06:10 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2006 2010-12-29 18:54:20 :: administrator -> banon :: 2006 2011-01-02 17:15:10 :: banon -> administrator :: 2006 2018-06-05 03:43:02 :: administrator -> :: 2006 | |||
| 3. Conteúdo e estrutura | ||||
| É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz | |||
| Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido | |||
| Transferível | 1 | |||
| Palavras-Chave | ensemble forecasting predictability South America forecast skill | |||
| Resumo | The main objective of this study is to asses the skill of a short range regional ensemble forecast system over Southeastern South America. The proposed regional ensemble forecast system consists of 9 members: 4 pairs of perturbed forecasts plus a control forecast. The initial and boundary conditions are perturbed using scaled lagged forecasts from the GFS operational runs (up to 96-hr lenght) at 00 and 12 UTC. This technique was applied for the first time to regional forecasting during the SAMEX'98 (Storm and Mesoscale Ensemble Experiment) as described in Hou et. al. (2001).The methodology selected for the initial perturbations generation is of particular interest because it provides consistent perturbed boundary conditions and only requires a set of global operational forecasts. The amplitude of the perturbations is rescaled using the geopotential heights at 200 hPa. so that they have near the same amplitude among them. This has been done to avoid spurious amplitude growth due to the inclusion of older forecasts. These perturbed initial and boundary conditions are used to run a 9-regional forecast ensemble, using WRF V2.0 mesoscale model. The regional domain encompasses South Eastern South America with a horizontal resolution of 50 km, 31 vertical levels and the forecast length is 48 hours. This experiment is performed over a month of the 2005 Southern Hemisphere spring season, so as to analize the importance of the ensemble forecast system over a critical period, characterized by heavy precipitation generally organized in huge mesoscale convective systems. The skill of the ensemble mean is compared against the skill of the control forecast. Also, in order to investigate if the ensemble dispersion could be used to forecast the magnitude and distribution of the control forecast errors, the relationship between these variables is measured over the region. The relationship is explored trough the computation of the spatial correlation between both fields and the temporal correlation of dispersion and error averaged over the entire domain. The root mean-square error (RMSE) between the forecasted fields and the analysis is computed as a function of the forecast time in order to asses the skill of both the ensemble and the control forecast. When available, upper air observations are also used in a similar way. Preliminary results suggest the benefit of adopting an ensemble technique to improve regional forecasts. Still, it remains a critical issue the lack of enough observational data to quantitatively assess the impact in precipitation forecasts. | |||
| Área | MET | |||
| Tipo | Weather analysis and forecasting | |||
| Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar | |||
| Conteúdo da Pasta source |
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| Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos | |||
| 4. Condições de acesso e uso | ||||
| URL dos dados | http://mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.21.10 | |||
| URL dos dados zipados | http://mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br/zip/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.21.10 | |||
| Idioma | en | |||
| Arquivo Alvo | 1977-1984.pdf | |||
| Grupo de Usuários | jruiz@cima.fcen.uba.ar administrator | |||
| Visibilidade | shown | |||
| 5. Fontes relacionadas | ||||
| Acervo Hospedeiro | cptec.inpe.br/nobre/2005/06.02.21.14 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 | |||
| 6. Notas | ||||
| Nota | 1 | |||
| Campos Vazios | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber contenttype copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition group identifier isbn issn label lineage mirrorrepository nextedition nexthigherunit notes numberofvolumes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup readpermission resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark url versiontype volume | |||